Victory Day pressure for Putin
Russia has now abandoned its initial plan to capture the capital, Kyiv. Putin has understood that reaching President Volodymyr Zelensky is not easy. At least not enough to celebrate ‘Victory Day’ on 9th May. That’s why the Russian army has been instructed to stay in the east and south of Ukraine. Plan B is this – if Ukraine is taken by surprise, then prolong the fight. After all, slowly, if the blood continues to leak, then life is lost. Therefore, if you cannot remove the neck directly, then inflict so many wounds on the body that while applying the ointment, so much blood comes out that death is certain. Who knows that wounds from place to place may surrender just to avoid death.
confusion over enthusiasm
Alexander Grinberg, an analyst at the Jerusalem Institute for Security and Strategy (JISS), said: “Putin has a strong affinity for symbolic dates and history. So he must have wanted to see some picture of victory before May 9. At the same time, Sergei Karaganov, honorary chairman of the Moscow-based think tank The Council for Foreign and Defense Policy, says that if Russia loses this war, it will be very expensive, so we need something like victory. He told Britain’s weekly newspaper The New Statesman, ‘The Russian elite is at great stake. For them it is a fight for survival.
Putin moving on Plan B
Russian security forces seem to be moving the other way from Kyiv to the north, but they are not bouncing off the southeastern city of Mariopol. The Russian army has been stationed there for two weeks. This is because this area connects Crimea to the rest of Ukraine. Crimea was annexed by Russia in 2014. “I think it’s going to be a very fierce battle for a complete clean-up of the Ukrainian security forces from Mariopol,” says Grinberg. To the north are Donbass and Donetsk, two areas that are strongholds of pro-Russian extremists. So if Mariopol is captured, Moscow will have control over a large area in the eastern part of Ukraine. Pierre Rajoux, academic director of the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Strategic Studies, says: “From Mariopol, the Russian army could launch an operation to capture the rest of the Donbass and continue to occupy southern Ukraine.” Then Russia will get access to the Azov beach.
How many columns will Putin be able to fill before May 9?
The intervening Donetsk and Lugansk were declared independent by Russia in February. But the rulers there still do not occupy the entire part of their respective areas. Moscow says that both rulers should have full rights over their respective territories and giving them this right is also one of the main objectives of the war. Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) say, ‘The war is not over yet. Russia can change course at any time if the Russian army carries out a successful operation in eastern Ukraine. Overall, Putin has many opportunities to fill in the blank columns of achievements. It has to be seen that before May 9, what opportunities they can capitalize on.
long drawn fight
In fact, Russia had no idea that there would be so much loss of life and property in the war against Ukraine. Military affairs experts say that this war does not seem to be ending soon. Many Russian soldiers have been killed, so now new recruits are being recruited. As soon as he joins the army, Moscow will intensify the fight. However, some analysts also believe that if the war drags on for too long, Russia may also have to suffer a lot because in the past it has started to appear that what can happen to Russia through Ukraine’s guerrilla war.
There will be an eye on the split within the European Union
If Russia does not succeed in its objective soon and the fighting drags on for too long, Moscow will play a ploy to increase differences among the Western countries. Under this, countries with a soft stance towards Moscow will work to increase the distance from countries with strict attitudes. Putin has conveyed this message by congratulating a close ally in the European Union, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, on his election victory. When US President Joe Biden said about Putin that the killer should not remain in power, French President Emmanuel Macron immediately objected, saying such statements would undermine operations against Russia. Macron said on Monday that the European Union advocated for more sanctions on Russia’s oil and coal industries, but did not mention natural gas, which the rest of the EU countries have been pushing for. ‘The aim would be to create a divide among the common citizens too,’ says Rajoux.