India will lose the crown
For China, the reduction of population means the emergence of economic and social challenges on a large scale. Where India will get advantage on these fronts, China will be seen lagging somewhere. China, which is the third superpower in the world till now, can lose this crown to India. More population means more trade and the status of superpower also increases. According to experts, population is the indicator of economic productivity and progress for any country. For the past several years, India has remained the fastest growing economy of the world. According to Morgan Stanley, India has grown at a rate of 5.5 per cent in the last decade.
India is now the fifth largest economy in the world, replacing Britain. According to a report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), by the year 2028, India will overtake Japan and Germany to become the third largest economy. Now let’s talk about China where the effect of decreasing population can be seen from now itself. The country’s economy is already weak. Market movements were affected due to the Zero Covid policy and consumer confidence was also weakened.
Made in India dominance
Most of China’s population is old and now the population is decreasing, according to experts, both these reasons put a check on the economic progress of any country. Robert Bolhm, managing director of Resources Asia, a Toronto-based investment firm, says there is a direct connection between China’s population decline and its GDP weakening.
Scientist Yi Fujian at the University of Wisconsin Madison says that the increase in India’s population and the decrease in China’s population can be dangerous for the Chinese economy. He says that due to the population, China may lose the title of being the chip factory of the world. He believes that after the increase in population, most of the production capacity will turn towards India. Along with this, there will be a glut of Made in India goods in the American market as well.
Due to the high population, India can also get the seat of the United Nations Security Council. One of the 25-year-olds in the world is an Indian. 47% of the Indian population is below 25 years. Two-thirds of the population is such that they were born after the liberalization period that started in India i.e. in the early 1990s.
Challenges before India
However, some experts also believe that more population will also bring more challenges for India. The country’s poverty rate has come down a bit but still economic inequality continues. It has increased significantly in the last three decades. According to the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), only 40 percent of India’s population is working or wants to work. More and more employment will have to be provided to women. About 200 million people have left the country. Bringing them back and creating employment for the growing population and providing food security will be the biggest challenge.