The exact place of the rocket fall is not known
Scientists at the American Research Center The Aerospace Corporation’s Center for Orbital and Reentry Dowry Studies have said that the debris of this rocket will be visible in the Earth’s atmosphere for about 16 hours. It is not yet known where the Chinese rocket is going to fall on the earth. The likely areas where the debris fell include the US, India, Australia, Africa, Brazil and Southeast Asia. The first stage of a rocket, its booster, is usually the largest and most powerful part. Usually the rocket booster would be detached from the main rocket at such a time that it would make a trajectory and fall into the sea without any harm. But, the booster engine of China’s Long March 5B is different.
Chinese rocket is falling for the third time in two years
This is the third time in two years that a Chinese rocket is falling uncontrollably on the earth. The first incident happened in May 2020. Then the villages in the African country of Ivory Coast were reportedly rained down with metals, although there were no casualties. The second incident took place in May 2021, when the debris of a Chinese rocket fell into the Indian Ocean without harming anyone. However, the Long March 5B booster is much larger than the other two rockets. Due to its large size during its uncontrolled reentry, it would not be able to burn completely by the friction of the atmosphere. In such a situation, the possibility of its large piece falling in any part of the earth is high.
20 to 40 percent of the rocket will fall on the ground
Aerospace Corporation’s space debris specialist Marlon Sorge said 20 to 40 percent of China’s Long March 5B booster will reach the ground. However, its exact amount also depends on the texture of the object. Usually we see that the fuel tank in the final stage of the rocket is very small, but the engine part is large. In such a situation, the rocket’s engine and its tank can simultaneously enter the Earth’s orbit. In such a situation, whatever object will not burn, it will fall on the earth at a very high speed.
What is the danger of rocket debris
According to The Aerospace Corporation, more than 88% of the world’s population is located under a rocket’s orbital footprint. In such a situation, some debris that has escaped from burning in the atmosphere can also fall in populated areas. However, the chance of harm from this debris ranges from 1 in 1,000 to 1 in 230. The probability of falling debris on a person is about 80,000 times less than that of being struck by lightning. According to a report released in 2019 by the US government’s Orbital Doberies Mitigation Standard Practices, the internationally accepted casualty risk limit for a rocket to re-enter Earth uncontrollably is 1 in 10,000.