Narendra Modi is the PM continuously since 2014. There is a BJP government at the centre. Anti-incumbency is natural from this. People are devastated by rising inflation, unemployment. But the opposition can take advantage of this only when it unites and confronts the BJP. But call it a coincidence that every move of the opposition parties is knowingly or unknowingly turning in favor of the BJP. Opposition unity seems distant now. Means the opposition parties are beating the ground to spoil the game of the opposition. Talking about Bihar, AIMIM’s Asaduddin Owaisi has entered the fray to spoil the game of the opposition.
Owaisi is becoming a big factor
AIMIM leader Asaduddin Owaisi has always chosen a different path. It would be a mistake to underestimate the power of Owaisi in the kind of communal upsurge that is being witnessed in the country. He is declared the leader of the Muslims. Just like Mayawati is considered the leader of Dalits. If the Muslims, who are angry with BJP, partially or completely stand with Owaisi, then his party may not win the election, but it can definitely play a big role in defeating the candidates of other opposition parties. Especially in Bihar.
Owaisi has strengthened his hold on Muslims in the four districts of Seemanchal in Muslim-majority Bihar so much so that it will not be surprising if his party wins one or two seats. Even if the seat does not come out, then Owaisi’s party can definitely become the reason for the defeat of the candidates of parties like RJD, JDU and Congress, who understand their copyright on Muslim votes. This has been seen in the assembly by-election in Gopalganj. The way the Muslim fraternity gathered in the meetings of Owaisi, who has just reached Kishanganj on a two-day tour, and kept clapping excitedly on his speech against RJD-JDU, it is a danger bell for the opposition parties of Bihar.
BJP is sitting in the same desire that the votes of Muslims should be cut off from the strong grand alliance of seven parties or scattered. The M-Y (Muslim-Yadav) equation is the lifeblood of the RJD-JDU in Bihar. This is the reason why whenever Owaisi comes to Bihar during the election season, RJD and other opposition parties start calling him an agent of BJP. Even if he is not an agent, he will prove to be helpful to BJP by becoming a vote cutter.
BJP is helping everyone in turn
The main reason for BJP’s continuous success in the assembly elections since 2014 Lok Sabha elections till now is its election management. One example is enough to understand this. So far, the opposition parties are busy talking about unity, while the BJP has started working up to the booth level by making a well-thought-out strategy. As part of the strategy, it is trying to sabotage the opposition parties and bring small regional parties into its fold. Leaders like Upendra Kushwaha, RCP Singh, Prashant Kishor who came out of JDU are weakening the BJP opponents in some form or the other. Now BJP is planning to mobilize Pasmanda Muslims also in its favor.
Kushwaha-Sahni-Chirag made simple with security
BJP has taken three opposition parties of Bihar in its fold. Upendra Kushwaha has formed a separate party after leaving JDU. Mukesh Sahni has his own party. Chirag Paswan is the leader of a faction of LJP. All three have been secured by the central government by giving Y and Z plus category security. Pashupati Kumar Paras, the leader of the second faction of LJP, had already been made a minister at the Centre. It is obvious that the leaders who have been obliged to the BJP, leaving it, hardly stand with the other. This is also a part of BJP’s strategy.
Trying to force Nitish
The opposition says that the BJP currently has powerful tools from central investigative agencies like the CBI-ED. She is using them against the opposition leaders. RJD is the biggest party in Bihar right now. Leaving BJP, Nitish Kumar is CM only with the help of RJD and is dreaming of PM with the help of opposition unity. But due to a trick of the opposition, he is in a big dilemma. The CBI has started the process of probing the long pending scams against the family members of Lalu Yadav, the father of RJD. Apprehension is being expressed that CBI may arrest Lalu’s budding son Tejashwi Yadav in politics. If this happens, Nitish Kumar will be left with no option but to hold the hand of old ally BJP. Of all the money laundering cases registered by the ED so far, 2.98% cases are against MPs and MLAs. In these cases, 96% have been found guilty. That means the rate of conviction is also good.
Preparation to win more seats than seating
In the last two Lok Sabha elections, BJP has been winning 17 to 22 seats in Bihar. This time its plan is to save the seats won and also to win some such seats, where the margin of victory and defeat has been less. This is the reason why Amit Shah has made four visits to Bihar so far. The organization has become active at the booth level. In such a situation, if Owaisi shows even a little impact on his Muslim voters, then the path of BJP will become easy even in difficult circumstances.
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