Highlights
- In the survey of Times Now Navbharat, the tough competition of SP-BJP in Purvanchal
- According to the survey, Akhilesh’s party is less than one percent behind the BJP
- In the 2017 elections, BJP won 111 out of 141 seats in 25 districts.
- This time SP has tied up with Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party
Purvanchal means that area of Uttar Pradesh where Yogi Adityanath is an important factor in every election. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is also an MP from the Varanasi seat of the same area. At the same time, Gorakhpur and the surrounding area have been under the influence of Yogi Adityanath since the last years of the 90s. Purvanchal has also strengthened Akhilesh Yadav. Samajwadi Party supremo is a Lok Sabha MP from Azamgarh seat of the same region. With whom will the wind blow in Purvanchal in the 2022 assembly elections, that is the big question. Amidst all this, an election survey is indicating that there is a close contest between SP and BJP in Purvanchal.
Survey estimates tough competition in Purvanchal
Our partner news channel Times Now Navbharat has done a survey regarding the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections. According to this survey, there is a tough competition between SP and BJP in Purvanchal. In the opinion poll, 102 seats of Purvanchal have been assessed. According to this poll, BJP can get 49-58 seats. On the other hand, SP has been estimated to get 39-45 seats. At the same time, according to the survey, BSP can get 5-6 seats. Congress’s account is not even opening in this opinion poll. UP Congress President Ajay Kumar Lallu comes from Kushinagar district of this area. He is currently an MLA from Tamkuhi Raj seat here. Other parties are getting 0-2 seats in the survey. Even in the matter of vote share, there is a close fight between BJP and SP. In Purvanchal, BJP is expected to get 36.5 percent while SP is expected to get 35.7 percent votes. On the other hand, BSP can get 13.5, Congress 6 per cent and others 8.3 per cent.
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Akhilesh is trying to make caste equations like this
All 403 seats in UP have been surveyed. In this survey of Times Now Navbharat, BJP seems to be getting 239 seats. On the other hand, the Samajwadi Party is expected to get 144 seats. While BSP is getting 12 seats, Congress is seen getting only 6 seats. There is a possibility of a tough fight between BJP and SP in Purvanchal. Senior journalist Sanjay Pandey, who has been covering the politics of UP for a long time, told NBT Online, ‘Last time BJP had adjusted the caste equations of Purvanchal. Especially the non-Yadav OBC vote has a big contribution in the politics of Purvanchal. There, Brahmins are also in large numbers, Muslims are also in good numbers. The party to which the OBC goes, gets success in the election. This time Akhilesh Yadav has also tried to solve caste equations. Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) is on his side. The SBSP joining the SP is sending a message to the non-Yadav OBC section that BJP has not been able to do anything for them. Nishads have also been demanding reservation. Sanjay Nishad, whose Nishad Party has an alliance with the BJP, cannot even go out among his community and speak his words strongly. In such a situation, it cannot be said that the Nishad factor will go in favor of BJP. There is some resentment among the Brahmins. There are a good number of Brahmins in Purvanchal. All these factors are making the battle of SP and BJP a thorn.
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SP can get 45 seats in Purvanchal: Survey
This time in Purvanchal, BJP seems to be getting less seats than the last elections. Where BJP got 74 seats in the last election, this time BJP can stay within 60 seats. According to the survey, BJP can get 49 to 58 seats in this area. On the other hand, the SP seems to be benefiting a lot this time in comparison to the 2017 elections in Purvanchal. According to opinion polls, SP can win 39 to 45 seats from here. Whereas in the last election, SP got only 12 seats here.
‘Changing equations are making Akhilesh strong’
Throwing light on the political equations of Purvanchal, senior journalist Sanjay Pandey says, “Many OBC leaders of BSP like Lalji Verma, Ram Achal Rajbhar Hai have joined SP. Sukhdev Rajbhar, who was the speaker in the BSP government in 2007, was an MLA from Didarganj seat of Azamgarh. He also had a good influence among Dalits. Now his son Kamalakant Rajbhar is in SP. The coming of all these leaders to SP is a plus point for Akhilesh Yadav. This has become a matter of concern for BJP. Recently, Brahmin leaders who had influence in Gorakhpur and Sant Kabirnagar districts joined the SP. This can prove to be a bonus for SP. Generally Brahmins have not been going with the SP. Barring a few leaders like Mata Prasad Pandey, there is no prominent Brahmin face in the party. Harishankar Tiwari’s influence may not be the same as it used to be. But the message goes to the community. Going to a party which till now was untouchable for him is sending a positive message in favor of SP. Had these votes been going towards Congress or BSP, then perhaps BJP would not have suffered that much. Akhilesh already has a vote bank of Yadav and Muslim community. These changing equations are making Akhilesh’s position strong in Purvanchal.
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‘Exodus of migrant laborers in Corona is also an invisible factor’
Political experts also say that there was a migration of migrant laborers and workers during the Corona lockdown. Of these, workers from different districts of Purvanchal were also in large numbers. Their livelihood was snatched during the Corona period. On the other hand, when the conditions improved a bit, they could not get employment in Mumbai, Gujarat or other states. In such a situation, it can also be an invisible factor in the election.
BJP won 111 out of 141 seats in Purvanchal in 2017
Purvanchal and Yogi have been complementary to each other in the politics of UP. The biggest example of this was seen in the 2017 assembly elections, when the BJP won all the assembly seats in 11 of the 25 districts of Purvanchal. Lotus blossomed in 111 out of 141 seats in the area. Yogi’s influence in this area was also the main reason for BJP’s dominance and three-fourth majority in the assembly elections.
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Preparations for the Uttar Pradesh Election 2022 have started. These elections for the 403-seat 18th Assembly can be held between February and April. The term of the 17th Assembly (UP Assembly) is till 15 May. Elections to the 403 seats for the 17th Legislative Assembly were held in 7 phases from 11 February to 8 March 2017. About 61 percent of the voters exercised their franchise. Of these, more than 63 percent were women, while the percentage of men was about 60 percent. In the election, BJP won 312 seats for the first time and secured three-fourth majority in the UP Vidhansabha. At the same time, the Samajwadi Party and Congress alliance led by Akhilesh Yadav could win 54 seats. Apart from this, the BSP of Mayawati, who had been Chief Minister several times in the state, was reduced to 19 seats. This time a direct contest is being considered between the Samajwadi Party and the BJP. BJP is contesting the elections by putting forward the faces of Yogi Adityanath and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Yogi Adityanath and Akhilesh Yadav (file photo)
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